Paper Industry Light Industry Weekly: The main home company's double 11 data is hot

[Office Partner Information Center] Shen Wan Hongyuan released the papermaking light industry research report on November 15th. The report is summarized as follows:

Current investment tips:

1 This week's view: Tmall double 11 feast came to a close, home leading company to play online and offline synergy sales effect, continue to maintain high growth, brand concentration improvement logic further verified: Sophia [0.35% fund research report]: double 11 period Sofia The cumulative turnover of the brand reached 400 million (vs. about 220 million in 2015), and the transaction volume of the double 11 broke 239 million yuan (about 120 million yuan in 2015), ranking first in the whole house of fixed products! Sales exceeded 36 million. Gujia Home: Double 11 turnover of 311 million yuan (vs 2015 80 million), for the fifth consecutive year, the first 11 double-soft homes! Xilinmen [-0.32% fund research report]: 60 million or so (vs2015 less than 40 million). Meike Home: Online sales exceeded 20 million (vs 2015 8 million), and 200 sets of lifestyle packages were tested. 30163323609

This week recommended the main line update: 1) steady and rapid growth of home, ROE continued to improve: flexible supply chain efficiency: Sofia: 2017 benefited from the loss of cabinets, the expansion of large household categories to increase customer unit prices, is expected to continue high growth.

Management improvement in the home, release of operating dividends, increase profitability and turnover rate: Meike Home: customer group expansion + customer unit price increase, to protect revenue growth. The improvement of supply chain efficiency will improve, and the profitability in 2017 will be improved. In the disposal of the Group's Meike chemical assets, the management of the company will focus more on the home business. Da Ya Sheng Xiang: Performance continues to exceed expectations, management structure is optimized, equity incentives become an effective tool for synergy of interests, and executives are willing to increase their market capitalization. In the future, it is expected to expand the category and increase market share. The newly listed Gujia Home is also a company with a good reputation in the industry. The executive management is strong. It is expected that the endogenous growth will accelerate after the listing, which deserves long-term attention.

2) Paper supply side reform, layout deterministic growth: Recommended Shanying Paper [-1.74% fund research report] (350wt box corrugated capacity and 1 billion m2 packaging capacity, self-provided power plant expansion + packaging profit improvement + VAT The levy is refunded + fixed increase and new investment capacity guarantee equity incentive high performance commitment (with a 15-year base, 16-18 deducted non-family net profit growth rate of not less than 50%, 200%, 400%); fixed price increase of 2.55 yuan And the exercise price of 2.93 yuan to provide a margin of safety, high performance can be expected); high-performance growth, valuation has an advantage of Chenming Paper [-0.73% fund research report] (Paper Q3 monthly profit of nearly 100 million to provide performance Resilience and valuation center recovery power, rental scale of 30 billion, fixed base price of 7.58 yuan and higher BPS to build a safety margin, B / H shares are expected to continue to repurchase).

3) Based on the 2017 layout of the packaging industry, the business is stable and low valuation, in line with the incremental capital allocation requirements: Origen [0.53% fund research report]: the main business benefited from the recovery of Red Bull sales, the two-piece tank supply and demand situation gradually improved, new Product launches increase profitability. After the company revised the fixed-income plan again, it is expected that the process will be accelerated, and the future expansion of large-packages is worth looking forward to. Sports: The ten-year development plan for snow and ice sports is planned to be issued. It is planned that the total scale of China's ice and snow industry is expected to reach trillion by 2025. Origen, which is laid out in the snow and ice sports field in advance, is expected to take the lead.

A bottle of one-code intelligent two-dimensional code marketing packaging products is actively promoting.

And the Dongfeng shares of the cigarette industry chain [-1.55% fund research report] and Jinjia shares [0.56% fund research report]. Both companies have good textures. In 2016, due to the destocking of tobacco terminals, the main business experienced a significant decline, and the stock price was also running at a low level for nearly a year. We expect that the endogenous growth rate is expected to recover in the future, and both companies are actively expanding the main business segment of the tobacco package field with abundant operating cash flow. At the same time, the large consumption of Dongfeng shares and the health layout of Jinjia shares are worth looking forward to.

4) State-owned enterprise reform: Yueyang Lin Paper [-1.07% Fund Research Report]: State-owned enterprise reform + PPP dual theme. After the increase, it will wait for the approval and open a new chapter in the growth of garden PPP. Ningbo's 12 billion PPP will be steadily promoted to bring huge profit flexibility. The follow-up is expected to rely on the platform of the major shareholder Chengtong Group to continue to connect with local high-quality PPP projects. Chengtong took the lead in setting up a 350 billion state-owned enterprise structural adjustment fund to provide imaginative space for the company's subsequent transformation.

Other state-owned enterprise reform targets include: Pearl River Piano [-1.55% Fund Research Report] and FIYTA.

2 This week, the papermaking sector underperformed the market. This week, the papermaking sector overall rose 1.81% (key companies rose 1.08%), underperforming the market (the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose 1.88%). Finished paper market: The price increase of paper is yet to be implemented. The promotion of coated paper is difficult to implement. After entering November, the demand for coated paper remained unchanged. The information on the factory price adjustment of the coated paper has been implemented. However, most of the downstream dealers still maintain the original price at the beginning of the month, and it is difficult to raise the price. Double adhesive paper market is stable. This week, the double-sided adhesive paper plate was stable overall, and the actual single price was stable and small in the paper mill's resolutely rising attitude. Near the end of the year, the factories were busy lowering the inventory, so the actual price was more than a single talk.

The copy paper was affected by the “Double Eleven” activity in the middle of the month, and the shipment situation improved significantly. The gray-white board paper is stable. This week, sales of gray-whiteboard papers were stable, and market trading continued to remain stable. At the beginning of the month, the price of gray paperboard papers of various paper mills was raised by RMB 50/ton, and the downstream gradually accepted new prices and placed orders as needed. White cardboard pushed up the real order. The overall trading of the white cardboard market this week is still flat. In the early period, the paper mill announced the price increase several times, and the actual order is still in progress. Although the current paper mills and dealers have a higher resistance to price increases, the current real-price prices in some regions have increased. The rise in cardboard and corrugated paper in November remains to be seen. Orders for the cardboard paper market this week are still good. In recent months, due to the impact of rising overall costs, paper mills have actively promoted the price of raw paper. Recently, a number of original paper mills have issued price increase notices. The actual advancement of the singles remains to be seen. In the corrugated paper market, it is similar to the case of cardboard. The international softwood pulp is basically stable, and the price of broadleaf pulp is falling. This week, the international pulp market demand has not improved, so the market remains weak, the price of softwood pulp is basically stable, the price of broadleaf pulp is falling, and the trading atmosphere is still light. Domestic pulp prices are stable. Domestic pulp prices were stable this week, demand was relatively weak, and actual transactions were not prosperous. US waste ONP prices are stable and OCC prices are falling. This week, the US external disk market did not fluctuate wildly, and the OCC was slightly weak and trading was light. It is expected that the freight rate in the United States will increase by a certain percentage in the later period. There are not many offers from suppliers, and there are many wait-and-see attitudes. From the perspective of domestic downstream paper mills, as the current orders can no longer be shipped before the end of the year, the market buying momentum has also slowed down.

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